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41.2 Estimates and assumptions

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The PZU Group continuously monitors insurable events, in particular those related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the ongoing analyses, the PZU Group established a provision for unexpired risks in group life insurance and adjusted the value of the IBNR provision to the increase in deaths observed at the end of 2021, resulting from the next wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

41.2.1 Non-life insurance

In the calculation of provisions for outstanding claims and benefits, the uncertainty related to bodily injury claims is taken into account. For such claims, changes in the legal environment and uncertain jurisprudence may affect the ultimate amount of benefits paid.

When calculating the provision for the capitalized value of annuities, the future increase in average annuity is estimated based on historical data and taking into account other information that may contribute to an increase in annuities in the future (for example, growing insurance awareness, legislative changes, etc.).

Both as at 31 December 2021 and 31 December 2020, a discount rate of -0.3% was assumed for all annuities.

For lifetime annuities, the period in which the annuity will be payable is determined using publicly available statistics (in Poland – Polish Life Expectancy Tables). Additionally, the provision for the capitalized value of annuities is calculated taking into account the cost of future handling services at 3% of the value of benefits paid.

The estimated final value of claims and benefits paid in provision development triangles and the analysis of sensitivity of the net result and equity to changes in the assumptions used to calculate the provision for the capitalized value of annuities are presented in section

41.2.2. Life insurance

The amount of the life insurance provision corresponds to the value of liabilities under insurance contracts concluded. It is calculated as the difference between the present value of expected benefits and the present value of expected premiums. The calculation of provisions takes into account all the benefits and premiums provided for in contracts as contractual liabilities and receivables, regardless of whether a contract is performed by the policyholder until the end of the agreed term or terminated by the policyholder. The assumptions made for the frequency of events covered by insurance, i.e. mortality, morbidity and accident rate, are determined based on publicly available statistics, such as the Polish Life Expectancy Tables in Poland or based on own statistics developed using historical data on particular groups of products in the portfolio.

The assumptions used to calculate life insurance provisions are determined separately for each insurance product at the time the premium tariffs are adopted and sales of the product are launched (lock-in assumptions). Such assumptions are subject to natural uncertainty resulting from the long term of the projection. However, these assumptions are verified for adequacy every year. The data are subjected to an analysis in particular in terms of the behavior of the whole portfolio, as opposed to various distinct cases. If it is found that an assumption is inadequate, it is verified and adjusted, which leads directly to a change in the value of liabilities presented in the consolidated financial statements.

In the calculation of its technical provisions, the PZU Group applies the Polish Life Expectancy Tables or other publicly available statistics, among other sources. For the group and continued insurance portfolio, the calculation of provisions also makes use of assumptions regarding the probability of the insured having co-insureds (spouse, parents and in-laws). These assumptions, due to their long-term nature, are subject to natural uncertainty as to the actual evolution of the portfolio.

For the mortality rate, the Polish Life Expectancy Tables from 2018 were used with additional mark-ups for the main insured (depending on the age of the insured).

The PZU Group applies an individual method to calculate provisions for its group insurance portfolio.

A provision for unexpired risk was established for the group insurance portfolio being annual renewable insurance products. Its aim is to cover the deficit on future contributions with respect to the expected benefits and other outflows (costs and commissions) arising from increased mortality resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The analysis of sensitivity of the net result and equity to changes in the assumptions used to calculate technical provisions in life insurance is presented in section